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The polls are open for general elections in Holland, with recent surveys indicating that the anti-immigration leader Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) could once again win the most seats, although analysts suggest PVV stands little chance of joining the future coalition.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which in the last election pulled off a surprise first-place finish and formed a four-party right-leaning coalition that collapsed within a year, is currently marginally ahead in the polls and is projected to secure between 24 and 28 MPs in the 150-member parliament.

Nevertheless, PVV's support has declined since 2023, when it secured 37 seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out entering into a coalition with Wilders, and who precipitated the collapse of the outgoing coalition in June amid a dispute concerning his radical immigration proposals.

Major Parties and Forecasts

At the end of a campaign focused on topics such as migration, healthcare costs, and the nation's severe housing crisis, the left-leaning Green Left/Labour party alliance, headed by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is placed a close second, projected to win between 22 and 26 seats.

Also forecast to do well is the centrist D66, predicted to increase its seat count nearly fivefold to 21 to 25 seats, while the right-leaning CDA is expected to significantly increase its seat tally to between 18 and 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the PVV, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and NSC – are all forecast to see their representation reduced, with some experiencing significant declines.

Voting Process and Political Division

Under the proportional Dutch system, gaining just 0.67% of the vote yields a party a seat in parliament. Among the two dozen political groups participating in the vote – including senior-focused parties, for youth, for animals, basic income advocates, and sports parties – up to 16 could enter parliament.

This significant division means that no single party is expected to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by coalitions – often including four parties in recent governments – for over 100 years.

Post-Election Scenarios

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the Netherlands if the his party ends up as the largest party yet is excluded from power. However, opponents and experts argue that first place does not assure a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

While the final outcome is hard to predict and coalition talks could take several months, political observers suggest that after the most extreme government in recent memory, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a inclusive alliance led by either the moderate left or moderate right.

Election Day Details

Voting locations, such as those in the miniature city Madurodam in the capital and the Anne Frank house in the capital city, began operations at 7:30 AM (6.30am GMT) and will conclude at 9pm. A usually accurate exit poll is anticipated soon after closing time.

After the vote, an informateur will explore possible coalitions that could command a majority in the legislature. Prospective coalition members will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must undergo a vote of confidence in the house before assuming power.